Expectation Bias

If you’re at all confused, consult Wikipedia.

Put simply, expectation bias is the innate desire to find something better in your hi fi listening experience when you have changed something which ‘should’ make it sound better.

Remaining dispassionately empirical in one’s assessment of change, or to the introduction of new equipment, is a particularly tough, but necessary, requirement of the Gentleman Audiophile. On too many occasions I have sat listening to some system, some new component, or simply a change such as a speaker’s position, and spent my time either nonplussed at other listener’s enthusiasm for something that is plainly not as good, or else succumbed to the urge to find goodness in the change only to realise later that I have wasted my time.

Expectation bias is a tough one to fight for the audiophile. For a start, we are bombarded by people trying to sell us stuff. Whether it is a blatant advert, a glowing ‘review’ by someone in the back pocket of a manufacturer or distributor (naming no names but, suffice to say I no longer buy any British hi fi magazines), or the recommendations on a bulletin board, it’s hard not to be swayed internally by the positive message and end up either adding to the weight of opinion and thereby biasing other listeners, or else actually splurging some hard-earned on the item in question only to regret it later.

Second issue is that very cash spend; one inevitably wishes to justify retroactively what could have been far too impulsive a decision. This can combine with a polite refusal to accept that a fellow Gentleman may have, inadvertently in all likelihood, splurged his own hard-earned in a similar display of unfortunate bias. And, of course, the expectation that nobody would dare sell an expensive item without it having some value, therefore if it is expensive, or shiny, or heavy, or glows blue – then it must be good.

Thirdly, there is an expectation of pleasure. Lest we forget, we are audiophiles because we enjoy the glorious reproduction of music; anything which enhances that comes with that simple pleasure of pride of ownership, and anticipation of same can easily bias one’s opinion. Anticipation of pleasure is a pleasure in itself

Finally, there is one’s own ability to tell whether or not the item in question is any good; the expectation that, should I make change X or purchase Y, I’ll not only tell the difference but enthusiastically adopt it and feel good about it. Whereas it may not, or not noticeably; not only that, but I may not be able to tell a difference because item Y or change X may simply not work, or have strengths that are not revealed, in one’s own system, and one naturally wouldn’t want to admit that a lack of clarity might be a drawback. Therefore the expectation ‘there is a difference’ masks the fact that there may not be or that it is not entirely positive.

Expectation bias – pay attention!